Nvidia Stock: Strong Market Growth Enables It For 15% Annual Returns (NASDAQ:NVDA) -LSB

Garima
18 Min Read


TAIWAN-TECHNOLOGY-FOXCONN-NVIDIA

I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images

Thesis

In my previous article, I assigned a fair price for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $548.29 (which at the time reflected a 29.54% upside), and a future price of $1658.85. Since then, my estimates on fair price have

TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS
(Current data)
Assumptions Part 1
Equity Value33,265.00
Debt Value11,027.00
Cost of Debt2.34%
Tax Rate10.05%
10y Treasury4.16%
Beta1.72
Market Return10.50%
Cost of Equity15.06%
Assumptions Part 2
CapEx1,324.00
Capex Margin2.95%
Net Income18,889.00
Interest258.00
Tax2,111.00
D&A895.00
EBITDA22,153.00
D&A Margin1.99%
Interest Expense Margin0.57%
Revenue44,870.0

RevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus InterestNet Income Margin
2024$58,930.0$30,356.46$33,408.01$34,583.45$34,922.3051.51%
2025$92,140.0$51,046.20$56,177.56$57,353.01$57,691.8555.40%
2026$111,020.0$62,069.22$68,308.65$70,523.12$71,161.4855.91%
2027$120,130.0$66,236.76$72,895.13$75,291.31$75,982.0555.14%
2028$155,610.0$77,481.72$85,270.48$88,374.35$89,269.1049.79%
2029$179,800.0$84,287.88$92,760.82$96,347.20$97,381.0446.88%
^Final EBITA^

GeForce NOWSale of GPUs for Gaming
FY 20242,017.2610,258.45
FY 20252,906.6713,725.80
FY 20264,188.2218,365.12
FY 20276,034.8124,572.53
FY 20288,695.5532,878.05
FY 202912,529.4243,990.83

Data CenterGamingProfessional VisualizationAutomotiveOEM & OtherTotal
FY 202443,635.0012,275.711,290.001,061.00289.0058,550.71
FY 202555,198.2816,632.471,431.261,453.57386.6875,102.25
FY 202669,825.8222,553.341,587.981,991.39517.3896,475.91
FY 202788,329.6630,607.341,761.862,728.21692.26124,119.32
FY 2028103,610.6941,573.601,954.783,737.64926.24151,802.96
FY 2029121,535.3456,520.252,168.835,120.571,239.31186,584.30

RevenueNet IncomePlus TaxesPlus D&APlus Interest
FY 2024$58,550.7$30,159.47$33,191.21$34,359.10$34,695.76
FY 2025$75,102.3$41,606.65$45,789.11$46,956.99$47,293.65
FY 2026$96,475.9$53,939.68$59,361.90$61,286.26$61,840.99
FY 2027$124,119.3$68,439.39$75,319.18$77,794.93$78,508.61
FY 2028$151,803.0$75,582.69$83,180.55$86,208.49$87,081.35
FY 2029$186,584.3$87,470.72$96,263.61$99,985.32$101,058.17
^Final EBITA^

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