With 13 matches left in the league stage of World Cup 2023, here’s how the teams stack up in the race to the semi-finals.
Played: 6, Pt: 12, NRR: 1,405
Remaining matches: vs SL, SA, Neth
With 12 points already in the bag and three more games to go, India are almost through to the semi-finals. Another win would confirm qualification, but even if they lose all three, Afghanistan will need to win their three remaining games, while New Zealand and Australia need to win two each. If these three teams have higher net run rates than India, they, along with South Africa, can qualify ahead of India.
Played: 7, Pt: 12, NRR: 2,290
Remaining Matches: vs Ind, Afg
South Africa have as many points as India but have played one extra match. Two more points will confirm qualification, but even with 12 their exceptional NRR should keep them safe.
Played: 6, Pte: 8, NRR: 0.970
Remaining matches: vs Eng, Afg, Ban
After a slow start, Australia came into their own with four wins on the trot. Three more wins will confirm qualification, but two will also count if one of them comes against Afghanistan. As they also play Bangladesh, who are already out of the tournament, Australia are favorites to qualify.
Played: 7, Pt: 8, NRR: 0.484
Remaining Matches: vs Pak, SL
If they win their last two and finish on 12, New Zealand will still have an excellent chance of qualifying, but a loss to Pakistan on Saturday would leave both teams on eight points apiece from as many games, while a loss to 84 or more runs (in a chase of 301) will push them below Pakistan on NRR. Afghanistan will also reach eight if they beat the Netherlands on Friday, while Sri Lanka could also be in the mix.
All this means the next ten days will be decisive for all these teams. New Zealand’s last match is against Sri Lanka, and even if they win this one after losing to Pakistan, it could still come down to net run rates.
Played: 6, Pte: 6, NRR: -0.718
Remaining matches: vs Neth, Aus, SA
Afghanistan is the only team apart from those in the top four that can still reach 12 points. However, two of their three remaining matches are against Australia (in Mumbai) and South Africa (in Ahmedabad). Two wins in those three games will keep them in the mix if the top four teams don’t all reach 12 points. A win against the Netherlands on Friday would move them level on points with New Zealand, but they would also need to win by a considerable margin to improve their net run rate, which is currently a poor -0.718.
Played: 7, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.024
Remaining matches: vs NZ, Eng
New Zealand’s onslaught by South Africa has opened up the scoreboard, and one of the teams to benefit from it is Pakistan. They are now just one win behind New Zealand, and a win against them on Saturday will see both teams level on eight points from eight games. Pakistan’s final game will be against bottom of the table England at Eden Gardens. Depending on other results, Pakistan’s qualification chances may depend on that result.
If Pakistan lose on Saturday, their chances will hang by a thread: Australia will have to lose all their matches and remain on eight, while other results involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka will also have to go in Pakistan’s favour.
Played: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -0.275
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Ban, NZ
If Sri Lanka win their three remaining matches, they will finish on 10, but even then they will need other results to go their way. A defeat against India would mean they could finish with a maximum of eight points. For them to still be in contention, several other results will have to work in their favor, but it is still possible for multiple up to seven teams to finish on eight points and fight for two slots.
Played: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -1,277
Remaining matches: vs Afg, Eng, Ind
The Netherlands have the same score as Sri Lanka, but their NRR is much weaker. Wins in all their remaining games will give them a chance, but eight points probably won’t cut it for them.
Played: 6, Pts: 2, NRR: -1.652
Remaining matches: vs Aus, Neth, Pak
England could still finish on eight points if they win their remaining games, and join the fray if various other results match, but with a net run rate currently sitting at -1.652, their best bet will be to try and top it pick up seven and qualify for the Champions Trophy 2025.
S Rajesh is statistics editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats